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U.S. Economic Exceptionalism
Can the reign continue?
The U.S. has typically been able to shake off its cyclical economic troubles and power forth into a fresh expansion. This time around, it may be more challenging to emerge victorious.
Presenting the 2024 Capital Markets Forecast from Wilmington Trust, a member of the M&T family
Various forces have generally converged to underwrite each successive chapter of the nation's economic vitality—strength that has given U.S. stocks an advantage over other asset classes. But overspending, massive debt, and high interest rates have put continuing outperformance at risk. We look at those risks, as well as the opportunities.
TONY ROTH
A note from our Chief Investment Officer
"Our 2024 Capital Markets Forecast looks at how to best mitigate today the long-term investment risk of a possibly retreating U.S. economy tomorrow. We are optimistic AI may play an outsized role in driving productivity gains that could help the country grow its way out of its current tab and power another wave of leadership for U.S. stocks."
In an effort to understand whether we are headed for a soft landing or a recession, we explore the building blocks of American exceptionalism both historically—such as growth pillars and innovative capacity—as well as the post-Covid differentiators of economic performance.
Will past be prologue?
We look back and forward to project how we believe the traditional cornerstones of valuations, profitability, currency, and liquidity will fare in 2024.
What's behind U.S. outperformance?
What kind of an impact will the towering U.S. debt and changing demographics have on the U.S.’ enduring exceptional ability to rise above the rest? We look at our long- and short-term market risks and why diversification is so critical right now.
What are the tipping points?
Meet the Team
Tony Roth
Chief Investment Officer
Meghan Shue
Head of Investment Strategy
Luke Tilley
Chief Economist
Wilmington Trust Investment Advisors, Inc. (WTIA), a subsidiary of M&T Bank, is an SEC-registered investment adviser providing investment management services to Wilmington Trust and M&T affiliates and clients. Wilmington Funds are entities separate and apart from Wilmington Trust and M&T Bank.
Registration with the SEC does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Additional information about WTIA is also available on the SEC's website at adviserinfo.sec.gov.
Wilmington Trust Investment Advisors, Inc.’s Capital Markets Forecast is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the sale of any financial product or service or as a recommendation or determination that any investment strategy is suitable for a specific investor. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the suitability of any investment strategy based on the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and particular needs. The investments or investment strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for every investor. The material is not designed or intended to provide legal, investment, or other professional advice since such advice always requires consideration of individual circumstances. If legal, investment, or other professional assistance is needed, the services of an attorney or other professional should be sought.
The forecasts presented herein constitute the informed judgments and opinions of Wilmington Trust about likely future capital market performance. Forecasts are subject to a number of assumptions regarding future returns, volatility, and the interrelationship (correlation) of asset classes. Assumptions may vary by asset class. Actual events or results may differ from underlying estimates or assumptions, which are subject to various risks and uncertainties.
Wilmington Trust is not authorized to and does not provide legal or tax advice. Our advice and recommendations provided to you is illustrative only and subject to the opinions and advice of your own attorney, tax advisor or other professional advisor.
Some investment products may be available only to certain “qualified investors”—that is, investors who meet certain income and/or investable asset thresholds. Any offer will be made only in connection with the delivery of the appropriate offering documents, which are available to prequalified persons upon request.
References to the company names mentioned in this material are merely for explaining the market view and should not be construed as investment advice or investment recommendations of those companies. No assurance can be given as to actual future market results or the results of Wilmington Trust’s investment products and strategies. The estimates contained in this presentation constitute Wilmington Trust’s judgment as of the date of these materials and are subject to change without notice. The information in this presentation has been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness.
Investment products are not insured by the FDIC or any other governmental agency, are not deposits of or other obligations of or guaranteed by Wilmington Trust, M&T, or any other bank or entity, and are subject to risks, including a possible loss of the principal amount invested.
Securities listed or mentioned are provided for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be representative of current recommendations or holdings. It should not be assumed that these securities were or will be profitable.
Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or a loss.
Past performance cannot guarantee future results. Diversification does not ensure a profit or guarantee against a loss. There is no assurance that any investment strategy will be successful.
Benchmarks and financial indices are shown for illustrative purposes only. Such benchmarks and indices are not available for direct investment, and their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio, the actual cost of investing in the instruments that comprise it, or other fees. Benchmarks and financial indices referenced herein are representative of large and small domestic and international stocks and bonds, each with unique risks.
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